气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3841-4
	Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia
	Cash B.A.; Manganello J.V.; Kinter J.L.; III
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7363
结束页码	7380
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. We focus on two contiguous but geographically and dynamically diverse regions: the Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (70–100E, 10–30 N) and the nearby mountainous area of Pakistan and Afghanistan (60–75E, 23–39 N). Forecast skill is assessed using the Sign test framework, a rigorous statistical method that can be applied to non-Gaussian variables such as precipitation and to different ensemble sizes without introducing bias. We find that models show significant systematic error in both precipitation and temperature for both regions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) consistently yields the lowest systematic error and the highest forecast skill for both regions and variables. However, we also find that the MMEM consistently provides a statistically significant increase in skill over climatology only in the first month of the forecast. While the MMEM tends to provide higher overall skill than climatology later in the forecast, the differences are not significant at the 95% level. We also find that MMEMs constructed with a relatively small number of ensemble members per model can equal or outperform MMEMs constructed with more members in skill. This suggests some ensemble members either provide no contribution to overall skill or even detract from it. © 2017, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ENSO; Forecast skill; Monsoon
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; hindcasting; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); Afghanistan; Pakistan
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145833
作者单位	George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cash B.A.,Manganello J.V.,Kinter J.L.,et al. Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Cash B.A.,Manganello J.V.,Kinter J.L.,&III.(2019).Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Cash B.A.,et al."Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).