气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4203-6
	Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble
	Singh B.; Cash B.; Kinter III J.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7321
结束页码	7334
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982–2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Indian Monsoon; Interannual variability; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; monsoon; rainfall; regional climate; summer; teleconnection; weather forecasting; India; North America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145825
作者单位	George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22031, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22031, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Singh B.,Cash B.,Kinter III J.L.. Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Singh B.,Cash B.,&Kinter III J.L..(2019).Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Singh B.,et al."Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).