气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04975-y
	Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions
	Polkova I.; Köhl A.; Stammer D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7097
结束页码	7111
卷号	53 期号:11
英文摘要	In the context of decadal climate predictions, a climate-mode initialization method is being tested by which ocean ORAS4 reanalysis is projected onto dominant modes of variability of the Earth System Model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM). The method aims to improve the prediction skill of the model by filtering out dynamically unbalanced noise during the initialization step. Used climate modes are calculated as statistical 3-D modes based on the bivariate empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to temperature and salinity anomalies from an ensemble of historical simulations from the MPI-ESM. The climate-mode initialization method shows improved surface temperature skill, particularly over the tropical Pacific Ocean at seasonal-to-interannual timescales associated with the improved zonal momentum balance. There, the new initialization somewhat outperforms the surface temperature skill of the anomaly initialization also for lead years 2–5. In other parts of the world ocean, both initialization methods currently are equivalent in skill. However, only 44% of variance in the original ORAS4 reconstruction remains after the projection on model modes, suggesting that the ORAS4 modes are not fully compatible with the model modes. Moreover, we cannot dismiss the possibility that model modes are not sufficiently sampled with the data set underlying the EOF analysis. The full potential of the climate-mode initialization method for future decadal prediction systems therefore still needs to be quantified based on improved modal representation. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate mode; Decadal prediction; Initialization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; decadal variation; empirical orthogonal function analysis; ensemble forecasting; salinity; surface temperature; temperature anomaly; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145804
作者单位	Institut für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg, CEN, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Polkova I.,Köhl A.,Stammer D.. Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions[J],2019,53(11).
APA	Polkova I.,Köhl A.,&Stammer D..(2019).Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions.Climate Dynamics,53(11).
MLA	Polkova I.,et al."Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions".Climate Dynamics 53.11(2019).