气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04997-6
	Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4
	Rai P.K.; Singh G.P.; Dash S.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	247
结束页码	272
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Present study attempts to project extreme precipitation indices over 34 different meteorological subdivisions and six homogeneous regions such as Northwest, Central Northeast, Northeast, West Central, Peninsular India and Hilly Region during summer monsoon season in the twenty-first century. For this purpose, the Regional Climate Model version4 (RegCM4) had been run at 50 km horizontal resolution forced with the global model GFDL-ESM2 M, during reference period 1976–2005 for the model validation, and the mid- (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) for projections under RCP8.5 scenario over the South Asia CORDEX domain. In this paper, model simulated precipitation has been validated against IMD, APHRODITE and NCEP/NCAR data sets. The results indicate that RegCM4 captures the important features of seasonal precipitation and various extreme indices over the study area. The RegCM4 has projected an increase in the mean seasonal precipitation by 0.56 mm/day whereas in case of GFDL model the rate is 0.39 mm/day during the far-future relative to the reference period. The heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase more frequently (0.264/decade) than the mean precipitation rate (0.01/decade) over India. The correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and the seasonal mean precipitation are found to be strong. In addition, the consecutive dry days are projected to occur more frequently (3–5 days) over West Central (Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada) and west Rajasthan while consecutive wet days are projected to decrease over larger parts of India during far-future. Similarly, 1 day maximum precipitation and the simple daily intensity index are projected to increase consistently from mid- to far- futures over some sub-divisions of West coast, Hilly and Northeast regions. From a spatial probability perspective, model projection indicates more frequent severe drought and flood conditions over India. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Extreme precipitation indices; RCP8.5 scenario; Regional climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; data set; extreme event; model validation; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; seasonal variation; India
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145766
作者单位	Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221005, India; Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rai P.K.,Singh G.P.,Dash S.K.. Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Rai P.K.,Singh G.P.,&Dash S.K..(2020).Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Rai P.K.,et al."Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).