气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05004-8
	Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability
	Patricola C.M.; O’Brien J.P.; Risser M.D.; Rhoades A.M.; O’Brien T.A.; Ullrich P.A.; Stone D.A.; Collins W.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	351
结束页码	372
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ENSO; Extreme events; Hydroclimate; Precipitation; Predictability; Western US
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; temperature anomaly; vapor pressure; California; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical); United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145760
作者单位	Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford, United Kingdom; Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Patricola C.M.,O’Brien J.P.,Risser M.D.,et al. Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Patricola C.M..,O’Brien J.P..,Risser M.D..,Rhoades A.M..,O’Brien T.A..,...&Collins W.D..(2020).Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Patricola C.M.,et al."Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).