气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05049-9
	Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability
	Gopika S.; Izumo T.; Vialard J.; Lengaigne M.; Suresh I.; Kumar M.R.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1093
结束页码	1111
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models project an inhomogeneous anthropogenic surface warming of the Indian Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with strongest warming in the Arabian Sea and Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous studies have warned that this “Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like” warming pattern could yield more Arabian Sea cyclones, more extreme IOD events and decrease monsoonal rains. Here we show that CMIP5 models also produce an “IOD-like” pattern over the 1871–2016 period, in broad agreement with observations. Single-models ensemble simulations however indicate a strong aliasing of the warming pattern “signal” by the internal climate variability “noise” over that period. While the average Indian Ocean warming emerges around 1950 in CMIP5 and observations, regional contrasts are more difficult to detect. The only detectable signal by 2016 in CMIP5 is a stronger Arabian Sea than Bay of Bengal warming in > 80% of the models, which is not detected in HadSST3 observations. Conversely, observations already detect a stronger Northern than Southern Indian ocean warming, while this signal only emerges by ~ 2060 in > 80% of the models. Subsampling observations to only retain the most accurate values however indicate that this observed signal most likely results from sampling issues in the Southern hemisphere. In light of this large aliasing by internal climate variability and observational uncertainties, the broad agreement between CMIP5 and observations over 1871–2016 may be largely coincidental. Overall, these results call for extreme caution when interpreting spatial patterns of anthropogenic surface warming. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic climate change; Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP); Indian Ocean; Natural climate variability; Sea surface temperature (SST); Spatial pattern of Indian Ocean SST change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate variation; CMIP; global warming; Indian Ocean Dipole; monsoon; sea surface temperature; spatial analysis; Arabian Sea; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (Equatorial)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145738
作者单位	Physical Oceanography Division, CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004, India; LOCEAN, IPSL, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France; Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, NIO, NIO-IISc-IITM–IRD Joint International Laboratory, Dona Paula, Goa, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gopika S.,Izumo T.,Vialard J.,et al. Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Gopika S.,Izumo T.,Vialard J.,Lengaigne M.,Suresh I.,&Kumar M.R.R..(2020).Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Gopika S.,et al."Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).