气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
	Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach
	Reboita M.S.; Reale M.; da Rocha R.P.; Giorgi F.; Giuliani G.; Coppola E.; Nino R.B.L.; Llopart M.; Torres J.A.; Cavazos T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Changes in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX-CORE; Cyclone tracking scheme; Cyclones; Extratropical southern hemisphere; Precipitation; RegCM4
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145715
作者单位	Federal University of Itajubá, UNIFEI, Itajubá, MG, Brazil; Earth System Physics, ESP, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs, Trieste, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, 34151, Italy; Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, USP, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Physical Oceanography, Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education, CICESE, Ensenada, Mexico; Universidade Estadual Paulista, UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil; Centro de Meteorologia de Bauru, IPMet, Bauru, SP, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Reboita M.S.,Reale M.,da Rocha R.P.,et al. Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach[J],2020.
APA	Reboita M.S..,Reale M..,da Rocha R.P..,Giorgi F..,Giuliani G..,...&Cavazos T..(2020).Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Reboita M.S.,et al."Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach".Climate Dynamics (2020).