气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05377-1
	Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble
	Sawadogo W.; Reboita M.S.; Faye A.; da Rocha R.P.; Odoulami R.C.; Olusegun C.F.; Adeniyi M.O.; Abiodun B.J.; Sylla M.B.; Diallo I.; Coppola E.; Giorgi F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emission scenarios using a set of new high resolution (25 km) simulations with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) produced as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative. The projections focus on two periods: (i) the near future (2021–2040) and ii) the mid-century future (2041–2060). The performance of the RegCM4 ensemble mean (Rmean) in simulating relevant present climate variables (1995–2014) is first evaluated with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite-based data. The Rmean reproduces reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of solar irradiance, air temperature, total cloud cover, wind speed at 100 m above the ground level, photovoltaic power potential (PVP), concentrated solar power output (CSPOUT) and wind power density (WPD) over Africa, though some biases are still evident, especially for cloud-related variables. For the future climate, the sign of the changes is consistent in both scenarios but with more intense magnitude in the middle of the century RCP8.5 scenario. Considering the energy variables, the Rmean projects a general decrease in PVP, which is more pronounced in the mid-century future and under RCP8.5 (up to 2%). Similarly, a general increase in CSPOUT (up to 2%) is projected over the continent under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projection in WPD shows a similar change (predominant increase) in the near and mid-century future slices under both RCPs with a maximum increase of 20%. The present study suggests that the RCP2.6 emission scenario, in general, favours the implementation of renewable energy in Africa compared to the RCP8.5. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Africa; CORDEX-CORE; Future projections; RegCM; Renewable energy
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145713
作者单位	Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany; Federal University of Itajubá, UNIFEI, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, Minas Gerais, Brazil; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 220904, United States; Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centre for Atmospheric Research, National Space Research and Development Agency (CAR-NASRDA), Anyigba, Nigeria; Department of Physics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), AIMS Rwanda Center, Kigali, Rwanda; Department of Geography, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Earth System Physics, ESP, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretica...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sawadogo W.,Reboita M.S.,Faye A.,et al. Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble[J],2020.
APA	Sawadogo W..,Reboita M.S..,Faye A..,da Rocha R.P..,Odoulami R.C..,...&Giorgi F..(2020).Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Sawadogo W.,et al."Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble".Climate Dynamics (2020).