气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0
	Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections
	Wang P.; Tam C.-Y.; Lau N.-C.; Xu K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	In this study, future change of El Niño-related East Asian (EA) rainfall and the diversity of this relationship are investigated on the basis of the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) simulations taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). By evaluating the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climatology and interannual variations in simulations contributing to CMIP5, nine models are verified to be capable of reproducing El Niño diversity and EASM simultaneously. Six of these models are selected for projecting the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of two types of El Niño-related EA/western North Pacific (WNP) rainfall patterns and low-level atmospheric circulations under global warming, considering the realism in their simulated El Niño and EASM phenomena. It was found that, under a warmer background climate, the general patterns of anomalous circulation and rainfall will persist, but with amplification of the rainfall intensity during mature boreal winter and decaying summer for both Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño. Amplification of CP type-related rainfall seems to be stronger than that for EP type El Niño. Further analyses show that a moister atmosphere tends to always strengthen the rainfall variations for both El Niño flavors, regardless of how the El Niño-related circulation amplitude is modulated in various seasons. However, in boreal summer during the El Niño decaying phase, strengthened anomalous circulation also enhances the rainfall variability, with an effect comparable to the background moisture increase. Some of these atmospheric circulation changes might be associated with modified sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of El Niño and its diversity, under global warming. Our results indicate the importance of better preparedness and higher resilience in the EA region to enhanced El Niño-induced hydrological variations under a warming climate. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Central-Pacific El Niño; East Asian rainfall; Eastern-Pacific El Niño; Global warming; Moisture budget; Monsoon circulation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145653
作者单位	Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing, China; Earth System Science Programme, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Geography Resource Management, Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang P.,Tam C.-Y.,Lau N.-C.,et al. Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections[J],2020.
APA	Wang P.,Tam C.-Y.,Lau N.-C.,&Xu K..(2020).Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Wang P.,et al."Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections".Climate Dynamics (2020).