气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w
	Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models
	Helsen S.; van Lipzig N.P.M.; Demuzere M.; Vanden Broucke S.; Caluwaerts S.; De Cruz L.; De Troch R.; Hamdi R.; Termonia P.; Van Schaeybroeck B.; Wouters H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1267
结束页码	1280
卷号	54
英文摘要	Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, ~ 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	ALARO-0; Climate change; Convection-permitting simulations; CORDEX.be; COSMO-CLM; Extreme hourly precipitation; Parameterization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; numerical model; parameterization; precipitation (climatology); sensitivity analysis; weather forecasting; Belgium; Flanders
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145646
作者单位	Division Geography and Tourism, Department Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Louvain, 3001, Belgium; Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium; Royal Meteorological Institute, Uccle, Belgium; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium; Department of Geography, Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany; Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Helsen S.,van Lipzig N.P.M.,Demuzere M.,et al. Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models[J],2020,54.
APA	Helsen S..,van Lipzig N.P.M..,Demuzere M..,Vanden Broucke S..,Caluwaerts S..,...&Wouters H..(2020).Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Helsen S.,et al."Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).