气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05074-8
	Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system
	Qiao S.; Zou M.; Cheung H.N.; Zhou W.; Li Q.; Feng G.; Dong W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1591
结束页码	1606
卷号	54
英文摘要	Using hindcast and forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) for the period 1982–2017, we comprehensively assess the predictability of the climatology, interannual variability, and dominant modes of the wintertime 500 hPa height over Ural-Siberia (40–80° N and 30–100° E). Although the climatic mean 500 hPa height over Ural-Siberia simulated by NCEP CFSv2 has a negative bias, especially over the eastern part of the region, NCEP CFSv2 well predicts the spatial distribution of the two major modes (EOF1 and EOF2) over this region 2 months in advance. The forecasting skill of the principal component (PC) of the two major modes, PC1 (PC2), is highest 1 (0) month in advance, where the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed time series reaches + 0.36 (+ 0.67), exceeding the 95% confidence level. Conversely, the forecasting skill of PC1 (PC2) is very low 0 (1) month in advance. The main reason for the poorer (better) prediction of PC1 0 (1) month in advance is associated with a less (more) accurate response of the Eurasian pattern to SST anomalies over the southwestern Atlantic. For PC2, the better (poorer) prediction of PC2 0 (1) month in advance may be due to more (less) accurate responses of the stratospheric polar vortex and the Scandinavian pattern to the dipole SST anomalies over the North Pacific. These results are useful for evaluating the predictability of the East Asian winter climate. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Eurasian pattern; Predictability; Scandinavian pattern; Stratospheric polar vortex; Ural-Siberia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; geopotential; height determination; hindcasting; polar vortex; sea surface temperature; winter; Siberia; Urals
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145631
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China; Guy Carpenter Asia–Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; City University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China; National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qiao S.,Zou M.,Cheung H.N.,et al. Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system[J],2020,54.
APA	Qiao S..,Zou M..,Cheung H.N..,Zhou W..,Li Q..,...&Dong W..(2020).Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Qiao S.,et al."Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).