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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05069-5
	Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?
	Larson S.M.; Pegion K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1507
结束页码	1522
卷号	54
英文摘要	Prospects for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability at long lead-times lie in the subsurface oceanic memory along the equatorial Pacific. Long considered a reliable precursor to ENSO, the oceanic heat content in springtime, often referred to as the recharge-discharge, is considered the most promising indicator of an ENSO event to come. In this study, we utilize January initialized hindcasts from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) over 1982–2010 to confront the hypothesis that the springtime recharge is a skillful predictor of ENSO the following winter. We find that the NMME ensemble mean predictions for the springtime recharge are highly skilled, even at a 10-months lead. Overall, as an independent predictor of ENSO, the springtime recharge-discharge tips the scale towards like-sign ENSO, but the spread of ENSO outcomes remains large. In both observations and the NMME predictions, recharged (discharged) states rarely evolve into La Niña (El Niño) events, yet an ENSO-neutral state is as likely to occur after a preconditioned state as is a like-sign ENSO event, particularly in observations. However, more often than in observations, the initialized predictions follow springtime recharged, neutral, and discharged states with El Niño, ENSO-neutral, and La Niña events, respectively, indicating that the NMME underestimates the uncertainty in nature. Predictions from initially recharged and discharged states also produce comparable signal-to-noise ratios in December ENSO predictions over the hindcast period. Therefore, in the realistic forecast setting considered, neither a recharged nor a discharged state produces a more predictable ENSO outcome, which is at odds with conclusions from recent predictability studies. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	asymmetry; discharge; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; hindcasting; La Nina; recharge; spring (season); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145624
作者单位	Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Drive, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Larson S.M.,Pegion K.. Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?[J],2020,54.
APA	Larson S.M.,&Pegion K..(2020).Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Larson S.M.,et al."Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).