气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05075-7
	Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation
	Wahiduzzaman M.; Oliver E.C.J.; Wotherspoon S.J.; Luo J.-J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1571
结束页码	1589
卷号	54
英文摘要	In this study, we have investigated the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the North Indian Ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and seasonal predictability. A statistical seasonal prediction model was developed for the NIO region tropical cyclone genesis, trajectories and landfalls using the Southern Oscillation index (SOI: as a metric of ENSO) as a predictor. The forecast model utilised kernel density estimation (KDE), a generalised additive model (GAM), Euler integration, and a country mask. TCs from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre were analysed over the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. KDE was used to model the distribution of cyclone genesis points and the cyclone tracks were estimated using the GAM, with velocities fit as smooth functions of location according to ENSO phase and TC season. The best predictor lead time scales for TC forecast potential were assessed from 1 to 6 months. We found that the SOI (as a proxy for ENSO) is a good predictor of TC behaviour 2-months in advance (70% skill). Two hindcast validation methods were applied to assess the reliability of the model. The model was found to be skillful in hindcasting NIO region TC activity for the pre and post monsoon season. The distribution of TC genesis, movement and landfall probabilities over the study period, as well as the hindcast probabilities of TC landfall during ENSO events, matched well against observations over most of the study domain. Overall, we found that the phase of ENSO has the potential to improve NIO region TC seasonal forecast skill by about 15% over climatological persistence. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	El Niño-Southern Oscillation; North Indian Ocean; Seasonal forecasting; Statistical modelling; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	El Nino-Southern Oscillation; numerical model; seasonal variation; statistical analysis; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145618
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahiduzzaman M.,Oliver E.C.J.,Wotherspoon S.J.,et al. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation[J],2020,54.
APA	Wahiduzzaman M.,Oliver E.C.J.,Wotherspoon S.J.,&Luo J.-J..(2020).Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Wahiduzzaman M.,et al."Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).