气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05099-z
	Future changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway
	Whan K.; Sillmann J.; Schaller N.; Haarsma R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2071
结束页码	2084
卷号	54
英文摘要	Flooding events associated with extreme precipitation have had large impacts in Norway. It is well known that these heavy precipitation events affecting Norway (and other parts of Europe) are strongly associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). We assess trends in Norwegian AR characteristics, and the influence of AR variability on extreme precipitation in Norway. We first evaluate the ability of a high-resolutionglobal climate model (EC-Earth) to simulate ARs, compared to ERA-Interim. We evaluate the EC-Earth simulated relationship between ARs and extreme precipitation in western Norway, compared to the observed relationship. We find that EC-Earth is able to simulate well the statistics of AR events and the related precipitation. The intensity and frequency of ARs making landfall in Norway both increase by the end of the century and we find a shift in seasonality of AR events in the future period. In two regions on the west coast, the majority of winter precipitation maxima are associated with AR events (> 80% of cases). Next we assess the influence of AR variability on extreme precipitation. A non-stationary extreme value analysis indicates that the magnitude of extreme precipitation events in these regions is associated with AR intensity. Indeed, the 1-in-20 year extreme event is 17% larger when the AR-intensity is high, compared to when it is low. There is little influence of specific humidity on the variability of extreme precipitation after all variables are de-trended. Finally, we find that the region mean temperature during winter AR events increases in the future. In the future, when the climate is generally warmer, AR days will tend to make landfall when the temperature is above the freezing point. The partitioning of more precipitation as rain, rather than as snow, can have severe impacts on flooding and water resource management. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Atmospheric river; Climate change; Extreme precipitation; Extreme value theory; Global climate model; Norway
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; future prospect; global climate; precipitation (climatology); Norway
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145580
作者单位	R&D Weather and Climate Modeling, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Whan K.,Sillmann J.,Schaller N.,et al. Future changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway[J],2020,54.
APA	Whan K.,Sillmann J.,Schaller N.,&Haarsma R..(2020).Future changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Whan K.,et al."Future changes in atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).