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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1 |
Statistical adjustment; calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia | |
Manzanas R.; Gutiérrez J.M.; Bhend J.; Hemri S.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Penabad E.; Brookshaw A. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
起始页码 | 2869 |
结束页码 | 2882 |
卷号 | 54 |
英文摘要 | The present paper is a follow-on of the work presented in Manzanas et al. (Clim Dyn 53(3–4):1287–1305, 2019) which provides a comprehensive intercomparison of alternatives for the post-processing (statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling) of seasonal forecasts for a particularly interesting region, Southeast Asia. To answer the questions that were raised in the preceding work, apart from Bias Adjustment (BA) and ensemble Re-Calibration (RC) methods—which transform directly the variable of interest,—we include here more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) and Model Outputs Statistics (MOS) downscaling techniques—which operate on a selection of large-scale model circulation variables linked to the local observed variable of interest. Moreover, we test the suitability of BA and PP methods for the post-processing of daily—not only seasonal—time-series, which are often needed in a variety of sectoral applications (crop, hydrology, etc.) or to compute specific climate indices (heat waves, fire weather index, etc.). In addition, we also undertake an assessment of the effect that observational uncertainty may have for statistical post-processing. Our results indicate that PP methods (and to a lesser extent MOS) are highly case-dependent and their application must be carefully analyzed for the region/season/application of interest, since they can either improve or degrade the raw model outputs. Therefore, for those cases for which the use of these methods cannot be carefully tested by experts, our overall recommendation would be the use of BA methods, which seem to be a safe, easy to implement alternative that provide competitive results in most situations. Nevertheless, all methods (including BA ones) seem to be sensitive to observational uncertainty, especially regarding the reproduction of extremes and spells. For MOS and PP methods, this issue can even lead to important regional differences in interannual skill. The lessons learnt from this work can substantially benefit a wide range of end-users in different socio-economic sectors, and can also have important implications for the development of high-quality climate services. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | atmospheric circulation; calibration; climate prediction; downscaling; ensemble forecasting; seasonal variation; time series analysis; Southeast Asia |
来源期刊 | Climate Dynamics
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145547 |
作者单位 | Meteorology Group, Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; Meteorology Group, Institute of Physics of Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-University of Cantabria, Santander, Spain; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23 08010, Barcelona, Spain; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Manzanas R.,Gutiérrez J.M.,Bhend J.,et al. Statistical adjustment; calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia[J],2020,54. |
APA | Manzanas R..,Gutiérrez J.M..,Bhend J..,Hemri S..,Doblas-Reyes F.J..,...&Brookshaw A..(2020).Statistical adjustment; calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia.Climate Dynamics,54. |
MLA | Manzanas R.,et al."Statistical adjustment; calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia".Climate Dynamics 54(2020). |
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