气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05150-4
	Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map
	Li M.; Jiang Z.; Zhou P.; Le Treut H.; Li L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2815
结束页码	2830
卷号	54
英文摘要	Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Physical explanations; Precipitation projection; Self-organizing map; Statistical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; downscaling; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; self organizing map; spatial distribution; statistical analysis; summer; China; Huai Basin; Yangtze Basin
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145546
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Fengxian Meteorological Service, Fengxian District, Shanghai, China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li M.,Jiang Z.,Zhou P.,et al. Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map[J],2020,54.
APA	Li M.,Jiang Z.,Zhou P.,Le Treut H.,&Li L..(2020).Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Li M.,et al."Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).