气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Understanding the links between climate feedbacks; variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05189-3
	Understanding the links between climate feedbacks; variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model
	Colman R.; Soldatenko S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3441
结束页码	3459
卷号	54
英文摘要	A simple, two-layer energy balance model (EBM) is used to investigate climate variability in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and examine possible links between variability and climate sensitivity, and the roles of stochastic variability, radiative feedbacks and ocean mixing. The EBM represents global variability that, while somewhat stronger than the CMIP5 models, simulates reasonable ratios between shorter and longer timescales. Variability in the EBM to the range of parameters from the Global Climate Models is found to be particularly sensitive to stochastic variability, especially on interannual time-scales. Radiative feedbacks and ocean mixing parameters are also important, particularly for decadal timescales. A modest amount of the model-to-model spread in the variance of global temperature in the CMIP5 models is explained by the EBM. The EBM exhibits a stronger link between equilibrium climate sensitivity and the magnitude of the variability than it does for transient climate response, especially on decadal and longer timescales. The EBM results suggests that spread in stochastic forcing across the CMIP5 models is the single greatest factor degrading the correlation between variability and climate sensitivity, although model to model differences in radiative forcing and mixing into the deep ocean are also important. The findings suggest that from a theoretical point of view investigating constraints from variability may be a fruitful exercise. However, they also suggest that normalizing variability in general circulation models by stochastic forcing, uptake into the deep ocean and radiative forcing are all important first steps to reduce factors that will otherwise confound the correlations. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate feedback; climate modeling; climate variation; CMIP; energy balance; general circulation model; global climate; radiative forcing; stochasticity
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145515
作者单位	Australian Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Colman R.,Soldatenko S.. Understanding the links between climate feedbacks; variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model[J],2020,54.
APA	Colman R.,&Soldatenko S..(2020).Understanding the links between climate feedbacks; variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Colman R.,et al."Understanding the links between climate feedbacks; variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).