气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05177-7
	Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model
	Kuo C.-C.; Gan T.Y.; Wang J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3561
结束页码	3581
卷号	54
英文摘要	A regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model), was set-up and fine-tuned to simulate the possible impacts of climate change to the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) of Canada from May to October. The baseline (1979–2005) regional climate of the MRB simulated by WRF agrees well with gridded observed climate data, ANUSPLIN of Environment Canada. Next, WRF projected the regional climate change of MRB for 2041–2100 by dynamic downscaling RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios of three global climate models (GCMs), ACCESS1–3, CCSM4, and CanESM2. Based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios downscaled by WRF, air temperature of MRB is projected to increase by 2.5–3.8 °C and 4.5–6.9 °C in the 2050 s and 2080 s, respectively. In general, the air temperature of MRB is projected to increase marginally higher in colder regions of higher latitude and elevation. In contrast, the seasonal precipitation of MRB is only projected to increase marginally in the 2080 s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The projected extreme precipitation indices show that future precipitation events would become more intensive and of longer durations. Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the annual counts of days with total precipitation exceeding 10 mm of MRB (R10mm) are projected to increase by 18% in 2041–2100; the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) could increase by 9.4%. More studies should be conducted to gain a better understanding of the potential impacts of global warming to MRB and possible adaptive measures to mitigate these impacts. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	8.5 climate scenarios; Climate change impact; Mackenzie River Basin; Precipitation; RCP 4.5; Regional climate model WRF; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; downscaling; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; Mackenzie Basin [South Island]; New Zealand; South Island
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145509
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Innovation Centre for Engineering, University of Alberta, 7-230 Donadeo, 9211-116 Street NW, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada; River Forecast Centre, Government of British Columbia, Nanaimo, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kuo C.-C.,Gan T.Y.,Wang J.. Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model[J],2020,54.
APA	Kuo C.-C.,Gan T.Y.,&Wang J..(2020).Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Kuo C.-C.,et al."Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).