气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05196-4
	Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model
	Dai P.; Gao Y.; Counillon F.; Wang Y.; Kimmritz M.; Langehaug H.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3863
结束页码	3878
卷号	54
英文摘要	The version of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that only assimilates sea surface temperature (SST) with the Ensemble Kalman Filter has been used to investigate the seasonal to decadal prediction skill of regional Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). Based on a suite of NorCPM retrospective forecasts, we show that seasonal prediction of pan-Arctic SIE is skillful at lead times up to 12 months, which outperforms the anomaly persistence forecast. The SIE skill varies seasonally and regionally. Among the five Arctic marginal seas, the Barents Sea has the highest SIE prediction skill, which is up to 10–11 lead months for winter target months. In the Barents Sea, the skill during summer is largely controlled by the variability of solar heat flux and the skill during winter is mostly constrained by the upper ocean heat content/SST and also related to the heat transport through the Barents Sea Opening. Compared with several state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems, NorCPM has comparable regional SIE skill in winter due to the improved upper ocean heat content. The relatively low skill of summer SIE in NorCPM suggests that SST anomalies are not sufficient to constrain summer SIE variability and further assimilation of sea ice thickness or atmospheric data is expected to increase the skill. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	NorCPM; Prediction skill; Sea ice extent; SST assimilation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; data assimilation; decadal variation; Kalman filter; prediction; sea ice; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145496
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dai P.,Gao Y.,Counillon F.,et al. Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model[J],2020,54.
APA	Dai P.,Gao Y.,Counillon F.,Wang Y.,Kimmritz M.,&Langehaug H.R..(2020).Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Dai P.,et al."Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).