气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1
	Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing
	Mindlin J.; Shepherd T.G.; Vera C.S.; Osman M.; Zappa G.; Lee R.W.; Hodges K.I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4399
结束页码	4421
卷号	54
英文摘要	As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South of Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Midlatitude precipitation; Southern Hemisphere; Storylines; Stratospheric polar vortex
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; greenhouse gas; midlatitude environment; precipitation assessment; probability; Southern Hemisphere; storm track; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting; Australia; New Zealand; South Africa; South America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145468
作者单位	Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Instituto Franco Argentino sobre estudios de Clima y sus impactos (IFAECI-UMI3351), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, 40129, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mindlin J.,Shepherd T.G.,Vera C.S.,et al. Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing[J],2020,54.
APA	Mindlin J..,Shepherd T.G..,Vera C.S..,Osman M..,Zappa G..,...&Hodges K.I..(2020).Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Mindlin J.,et al."Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).