气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
	Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts
	Batté L.; Välisuo I.; Chevallier M.; Acosta Navarro J.C.; Ortega P.; Smith D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5013
结束页码	5029
卷号	54
英文摘要	In this study, the forecast quality of 1993–2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), is assessed for Arctic sea ice. Beyond the Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration and extent deterministic re-forecast assessments, we use sea ice edge error metrics such as the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) and Spatial Probability Score (SPS) to evaluate the advantages of a multi-model approach. Skill in forecasting the September sea ice minimum from late April to early May start dates is very limited, and only one model shows significant correlation skill over the period when removing the linear trend in total sea ice extent. After bias and trend-adjusting the sea ice concentration data, we find quite similar results between the different systems in terms of ice edge forecast errors. The highest values of September ice edge error in the 1993–2014 period are found for the sea ice minima years (2007 and 2012), mainly due to a clear overestimation of the total extent. Further analyses of deterministic and probabilistic skill over the Barents–Kara, Laptev–East Siberian and Beaufort–Chukchi regions provide insight on differences in model performance. For all skill metrics considered, the multi-model ensemble, whether grouping all five systems or only the three operational C3S systems, performs among the best models for each forecast time, therefore confirming the interest of multi-system initiatives building on model diversity for providing the best forecasts. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Arctic; Climate prediction; Sea ice; Seasonal forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	arctic environment; climate prediction; concentration (composition); correlation; ensemble forecasting; probability; sea ice; summer; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145436
作者单位	CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Direction des Opérations Pour la Prévision, Département Marine et Océanographie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Batté L.,Välisuo I.,Chevallier M.,et al. Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts[J],2020,54.
APA	Batté L.,Välisuo I.,Chevallier M.,Acosta Navarro J.C.,Ortega P.,&Smith D..(2020).Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Batté L.,et al."Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).