气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7
	Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States
	Rasmussen K.L.; Prein A.F.; Rasmussen R.M.; Ikeda K.; Liu C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	383
结束页码	408
卷号	55
英文摘要	Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth. © 2017, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; climate modeling; convective system; future prospect; global warming; regional climate; thermodynamics; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145427
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rasmussen K.L.,Prein A.F.,Rasmussen R.M.,et al. Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States[J],2020,55.
APA	Rasmussen K.L.,Prein A.F.,Rasmussen R.M.,Ikeda K.,&Liu C..(2020).Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Rasmussen K.L.,et al."Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).