气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x
	Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe
	Knist S.; Goergen K.; Simmer C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	325
结束页码	341
卷号	55
英文摘要	We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature–extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) scaling rate of ~ 7% K−1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature–extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K−1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C–C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Added value; Climate change projection; Convection-permitting simulation; Precipitation statistics; Regional climate modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; atmospheric convection; climate modeling; diurnal variation; frequency analysis; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; regional climate; Central Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145426
作者单位	Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 176, Bonn, 53115, Germany; Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Research Centre Jülich, Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, Juelich, 52428, Germany; Agrosphere (IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, Jülich, 52428, Germany; Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Knist S.,Goergen K.,Simmer C.. Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe[J],2020,55.
APA	Knist S.,Goergen K.,&Simmer C..(2020).Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Knist S.,et al."Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).