气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4339-4
	Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations
	Ban N.; Rajczak J.; Schmidli J.; Schär C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	61
结束页码	75
卷号	55
英文摘要	We present an analysis of extreme precipitation events in convection-resolving climate simulations. The simulations are performed with the COSMO-CLM model at 2.2 km resolution across an extended Alpine region and its larger-scale surrounding. Generalized extreme value theory (GEV) is applied to address projections of 5-day, daily and hourly extreme precipitation events in all seasons. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals significant improvements with the 2.2 km resolution. In comparison to its driving 12 km model, high resolution improves the simulation of precipitation on most investigated timescales and seasons. The climate change signal is analyzed in 10-year long control and scenario simulations (1991–2000 and 2081–2090) driven by a CMIP5 coupled climate model (MPI-ESM-LR) under an RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. Analysis shows negligible differences between the two resolutions for winter precipitation on all time scales, while in the other seasons the 2.2 km model shows smaller changes in extreme hourly precipitation, and yields narrower uncertainty estimates. Changes in extreme summer precipitation qualitatively scale with the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, i.e., 6–7% per degree warming, and are consistent with previous percentile based analysis. In winter, changes exceed the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Some interpretations of this result are provided. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Clausius–Clapeyron scaling; Convection-resolving model; Extreme precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alpine environment; atmospheric convection; climate modeling; data interpretation; extreme event; model validation; precipitation (climatology); regional climate
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145420
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University, Altenhöferallee 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60438, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ban N.,Rajczak J.,Schmidli J.,et al. Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations[J],2020,55.
APA	Ban N.,Rajczak J.,Schmidli J.,&Schär C..(2020).Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Ban N.,et al."Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).