气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05263-w
	Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming
	Suarez-Gutierrez L.; Müller W.A.; Li C.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	429
结束页码	447
卷号	55
英文摘要	We evaluate how hotspots of different types of extreme summertime heat change under global warming increase of up to 4∘C; and which level of global warming allows us to avert the risk of these hotspots considering the irreducible range of possibilities defined by well-sampled internal variability. We use large samples of low-probability extremes simulated by the 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) for five metrics of extreme heat: maximum absolute temperatures, return periods of extreme temperatures, maximum temperature variability, sustained tropical nights, and wet bulb temperatures. At 2∘C of warming, MPI-GE projects maximum summer temperatures below 50∘C over most of the world. Beyond 2∘C, this threshold is overshot in all continents, with the maximum projected temperatures in hotspots over the Arabic Peninsula. Extreme 1-in-100-years pre-industrial temperatures occur every 10–25 years already at 1.5∘C of warming. At 4∘C, these 1-in-100-years extremes are projected to occur every 1 to 2 years over most of the world. The range of maximum temperature variability increases by 10–50% at 2∘C of warming, and by 50–100% at 4∘C. Beyond 2∘C, heat stress is aggravated substantially over non-adapted areas by hot and humid conditions that occur rarely in a pre-industrial climate; while extreme pre-industrial tropical night conditions become common-pace already at 1.5∘C. At 4∘C of warming, tropical night hotspots spread polewards globally, and are sustained during more than 99% of all summer months in the tropics; whilst extreme monthly mean wet bulb temperatures beyond 26∘C spread both over large tropical as well as mid-latitude regions. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; extreme event; global warming; heat transfer; summer; temporal variation; tropical environment; Arabian Peninsula
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145395
作者单位	Max-Planck-Institut Für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Müller W.A.,Li C.,et al. Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming[J],2020,55.
APA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Müller W.A.,Li C.,&Marotzke J..(2020).Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,et al."Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).