气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05313-3
	On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems
	Vannitsem S.; Duan W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1125
结束页码	1139
卷号	55
英文摘要	The use of coupled Backward Lyapunov Vectors (BLV) for ensemble forecast is demonstrated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere system of reduced order, the Modular Arbitrary Order Ocean–Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM). It is found that overall the most suitable BLVs to initialize a (multiscale) coupled ocean–atmosphere forecasting system are the ones associated with near-neutral and slightly negative Lyapunov exponents. This unexpected result is related to the fact that these BLVs display larger projections on the ocean variables than the others, leading to an appropriate spread for the ocean, and at the same time a rapid transfer of these errors toward the most unstable BLVs affecting predominantly the atmosphere is experienced. The latter dynamics is a natural property of any generic perturbation in nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems, allowing for a reliable spread with the atmosphere too. Furthermore, this specific choice becomes even more crucial when the goal is the forecasting of low-frequency variability at annual and decadal time scales. The implications of these results for operational ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems are briefly discussed. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Backward Lyapunov Vectors; Coupled ocean–atmosphere models; Ensemble forecasts; Lyapunov exponents
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; atmosphere-ocean coupling; chaotic dynamics; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; nonlinearity; vector
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145373
作者单位	Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vannitsem S.,Duan W.. On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems[J],2020,55.
APA	Vannitsem S.,&Duan W..(2020).On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Vannitsem S.,et al."On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).