气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0
	Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations
	Monerie P.-A.; Wainwright C.M.; Sidibe M.; Akinsanola A.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1385
结束页码	1401
卷号	55
英文摘要	The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models. Uncertainties arise mainly because the models simulate different shifts in atmospheric circulation over West Africa in a warmer climate. We linked the changes in atmospheric circulation to the changes in Sea Surface Temperature, emphasising that the Northern hemispheric temperature gradient is primary to explain uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change. Sources of Sahel precipitation uncertainties are shown to be the same in the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) as in the previous generation of models (CMIP5). © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Climate models; Projected changes; Uncertainties; West Africa
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145348
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Monerie P.-A.,Wainwright C.M.,Sidibe M.,et al. Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations[J],2020,55.
APA	Monerie P.-A.,Wainwright C.M.,Sidibe M.,&Akinsanola A.A..(2020).Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Monerie P.-A.,et al."Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).