气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4
	Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project
	Molteni F.; Roberts C.D.; Senan R.; Keeley S.P.E.; Bellucci A.; Corti S.; Fuentes Franco R.; Haarsma R.; Levine X.; Putrasahan D.; Roberts M.J.; Terray L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1843
结束页码	1873
卷号	55
英文摘要	This study investigates how teleconnections linking tropical rainfall anomalies and wintertime circulation in the northern extra-tropics are represented in historical simulations for the period 1950–2010 run by partners of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA project, following the HighResMIP protocol of CMIP6. The analysis focusses on teleconnections from the western/central Indian Ocean in mid-winter and from the NINO4 region in both the early and the late part of winter; this choice is justified by a substantial change in the relationship between ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the two parts of the season. Model results for both coupled integrations and runs with prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) are validated against data from the latest ECMWF 20th-century re-analysis, CERA20C. Simulations from six modelling groups are considered, comparing the impact of increasing atmospheric resolution in runs with prescribed SST, and of moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations in the high-resolution version of each model. Single runs were available for each model configurations at the time of writing, with one centre (ECMWF) also providing a 6-member ensemble. Results from this ensemble are compared with those of a 6-member multi-model ensemble (MME) formed by including one simulation from each model. Using only a single historical simulation from each model configuration, it is difficult to detect a consistent change in the fidelity of model-generated teleconnections when either atmospheric resolution is increased or ocean coupling is introduced. However, when simulations from six different models are pooled together in the MME, some improvements in teleconnection patterns can be seen when moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations. For the ECMWF ensemble, improvements in the coupled simulations are only apparent for the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection. While the Indian Ocean teleconnection and the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection appear equally robust in the re-analysis record, the latter is well simulated in the majority of both uncoupled and coupled runs, while the former is reproduced with (generally) much larger errors, and a high degree of variability between individual models and ensemble members. Most of the simulations with prescribed SST fail to produce a realistic estimate of multi-decadal changes between the first and the second part of the 60-year record. This is (at least partially) due to their inability to simulate an Indian Ocean rainfall change which, in observations, has a zonal gradient out of phase with SST changes. In coupled runs, at least one model run with both realistic teleconnections and a good simulation of the inter-decadal pattern of Indian Ocean rainfall also shows a realistic NAO signal in extratropical multi-decadal variability. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate models; CMIP6 HighResMIP; Extratropical circulation; Historical simulations; Interdecadal variability; Teleconnections; Tropical rainfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; CMIP; decadal variation; extratropical environment; historical record; North Atlantic Oscillation; rainfall; teleconnection; winter; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145329
作者单位	European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, (MPI-M), Hamburg, Germany; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climat, Environnement, Couplages, Incertitudes, CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Molteni F.,Roberts C.D.,Senan R.,et al. Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project[J],2020,55.
APA	Molteni F..,Roberts C.D..,Senan R..,Keeley S.P.E..,Bellucci A..,...&Terray L..(2020).Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Molteni F.,et al."Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).