气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced CO 2 levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05357-5
	Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced CO 2 levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea
	Lang A.; Mikolajewicz U.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1829
结束页码	1842
卷号	55
英文摘要	We quantify the change in extreme high sea level (ESL) statistics in the German Bight under rising CO 2 concentrations by downscaling a large ensemble of global climate model simulations using the regionally coupled climate system model REMO-MPIOM. While the model setup combines a regionally high resolution with the benefits of a global ocean model, the large ensemble size of 32 members allows the estimation of high return levels with much lower uncertainty. We find that ESLs increase with atmospheric CO 2 levels, even without considering a rise in the background sea level (BSL). Local increases of up to 0.5 m are found along the western shorelines of Germany and Denmark for ESLs of 20–50 years return periods, while higher return levels remain subject to sampling uncertainty. This ESL response is related to a cascade of an enhanced large-scale activity along the North Atlantic storm belt to a subsequent local increase in predominantly westerly wind speed extremes, while storms of the major West-Northwest track type gain importance. The response is seasonally opposite: summer ESLs and the strength of its drivers decrease in magnitude, contrasting the response of the higher winter ESLs, which governs the annual response. These results have important implications for coastal protection. ESLs do not only scale with the expected BSL rise, but become even more frequent, as preindustrial 50-year return levels could be expected to occur almost every year by the end of the century. The magnitude of the relative change in ESL statistics is hereby up to half of the expected rise in BSL, depending on the location. Changes in the highest extremes are subject to large multidecadal variations and remain uncertain, thus potentially demanding even further safety measures. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Extreme sea level; German Bight; Grand ensemble; Storm flood
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric chemistry; carbon dioxide; climate modeling; concentration (composition); downscaling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; quantitative analysis; regional climate; sea level change; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Denmark; German Bight; Germany; North Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145318
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lang A.,Mikolajewicz U.. Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced CO 2 levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea[J],2020,55.
APA	Lang A.,&Mikolajewicz U..(2020).Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced CO 2 levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Lang A.,et al."Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced CO 2 levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).