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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05440-x
	Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes
	Tory K.J.; Ye H.; Brunet G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3213
结束页码	3237
卷号	55
英文摘要	Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation regions are analysed in twelve CMIP5 models using a recently developed diagnostic that provides a model-performance summary in a single image for the mid-summer TC season. A subjective assessment provides an indication of how well the models perform in each TC basin throughout the globe, and which basins can be used to determine possible changes in TC formation regions in a warmer climate. The analysis is necessarily succinct so that seven basins in twelve models can be examined. Consequently, basin performance was reduced to an assessment of two common problems specific to each basin. Basins that were not too adversely affected were included in the projection exercise. The North Indian basin was excluded because the mid-summer analysis period covers a lull in TC activity. Surprisingly, the North Atlantic basin also had to be excluded, because all twelve models failed the performance assessment. A slight poleward expansion in the western North Pacific and an expansion towards the Hawaiian Islands in the eastern North Pacific is plausible in the future, while a contraction in the TC formation regions in the eastern South Indian and western South Pacific basins would reduce the Australian region TC formation area. More than half the models were too active in the eastern South Pacific and South Atlantic basins. However, projections based on the remaining models suggest these basins will remain hostile for TC formation in the future. These southern hemisphere changes are consistent with existing projections of fewer southern hemisphere TCs in a future warming world © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	CMIP; future prospect; global warming; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145266
作者单位	Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tory K.J.,Ye H.,Brunet G.. Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes[J],2020,55.
APA	Tory K.J.,Ye H.,&Brunet G..(2020).Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Tory K.J.,et al."Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).