气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05452-7
	A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment
	Pandey P.; Dwivedi S.; Goswami B.N.; Kucharski F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3307
结束页码	3326
卷号	55
英文摘要	A robust estimate of the ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship in a changing climate is critically important for projection of the ISMR predictability. In this study, we show that the increasing nonlinear trend of ISMR and global sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with the trend of the global warming mode leads to a ‘long-term’ component to the ENSO-ISMR relationship together with a ‘short-range’ component associated with the ENSO mode. Using historical and projected simulations by some state-of-the-art CMIP5 models, we separate the global warming mode from other oscillatory modes including the ENSO mode through a combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis, supported by a signal-to-noise maximizing EOF analysis. We find that the ‘short-term’ ENSO-ISMR relationship, represented by significant negative correlation between JJAS NINO3.4 SST and ISMR does not change appreciably with increase in green-house gas (GHG) forcing while the ‘long-term’ relationship changes from weak to significantly positive. We demonstrate that in a warming environment, the global warming mode must be taken into account together with the ‘natural’ ENSO mode in order to predict ISMR with confidence and emphasize that predictability of ISMR at any given time must be reassessed taking into account contributions from both short and long-term ENSO-ISMR relationships. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climatic change; CMIP5 models; ENSO; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate change; CMIP; computer simulation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; monsoon; numerical model; prediction; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; weather forecasting; India
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145252
作者单位	K Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies and M N Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP 211002, India; Physics Department, Cotton University, Guwahati, India; The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pandey P.,Dwivedi S.,Goswami B.N.,et al. A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment[J],2020,55.
APA	Pandey P.,Dwivedi S.,Goswami B.N.,&Kucharski F..(2020).A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Pandey P.,et al."A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).