气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1
	Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate
	Poujol B.; Prein A.F.; Newman A.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3543
结束页码	3564
卷号	55
英文摘要	Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Convection-permitting modeling; Convective systems; Mesoscale convective systems; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; atmospheric modeling; climate change; convective system; future prospect; mesoscale meteorology; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; storm; Alaska; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145237
作者单位	Département de Géosciences, École Normale Supérieure, PSL. Res. Univ., Paris, France; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Poujol B.,Prein A.F.,Newman A.J.. Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate[J],2020,55.
APA	Poujol B.,Prein A.F.,&Newman A.J..(2020).Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Poujol B.,et al."Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).