气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985-2018: Sensitivity to recent large variability

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DOI	10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019
	Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985-2018: Sensitivity to recent large variability
	Ball W.T.; Alsing J.; Staehelin J.; Davis S.M.; Froidevaux L.; Peter T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	12731
结束页码	12748
卷号	19 期号:19
英文摘要	The Montreal Protocol, and its subsequent amendments, has successfully prevented catastrophic losses of stratospheric ozone, and signs of recovery are now evident. Nevertheless, recent work has suggested that ozone in the lower stratosphere (< 24 km) continued to decline over the 1998-2016 period, offsetting recovery at higher altitudes and preventing a statistically significant increase in quasi-global (60°S-60°N) total column ozone. In 2017, a large lower stratospheric ozone resurgence over less than 12 months was estimated (using a chemistry transport model; CTM) to have offset the long-term decline in the quasi-global integrated lower stratospheric ozone column. Here, we extend the analysis of space-based ozone observations to December 2018 using the BASICSG ozone composite. We find that the observed 2017 resurgence was only around half that modelled by the CTM, was of comparable magnitude to other strong interannual changes in the past, and was restricted to Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes (60-30° S). In the SH midlatitude lower stratosphere, the data suggest that by the end of 2018 ozone is still likely lower than in 1998 (probability 80 %). In contrast, tropical and Northern Hemisphere (NH) ozone continue to display ongoing decreases, exceeding 90 % probability. Robust tropical (>95 %, 30°S-30°N) decreases dominate the quasi-global integrated decrease (99 % probability); the integrated tropical stratospheric column (1-100 hPa, 30°S-30°N) displays a significant overall ozone decrease, with 95 % probability. These decreases do not reveal an inefficacy of the Montreal Protocol; rather, they suggest that other effects are at work, mainly dynamical variability on long or short timescales, counteracting the positive effects of the Montreal Protocol on stratospheric ozone recovery. We demonstrate that large interannual midlatitude (30-60°) variations, such as the 2017 resurgence, are driven by non-linear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase-dependent seasonal variability. However, this variability is not represented in current regression analyses. To understand if observed lower stratospheric ozone decreases are a transient or long-term phenomenon, progress needs to be made in accounting for this dynamically driven variability. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling; ozone; sensitivity analysis; stratosphere; trend analysis
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/144096
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Dorfstrasse 33, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland; Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden; Physics Department, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College LondonSW72AZ, United Kingdom; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ball W.T.,Alsing J.,Staehelin J.,et al. Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985-2018: Sensitivity to recent large variability[J],2019,19(19).
APA	Ball W.T.,Alsing J.,Staehelin J.,Davis S.M.,Froidevaux L.,&Peter T..(2019).Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985-2018: Sensitivity to recent large variability.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(19).
MLA	Ball W.T.,et al."Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985-2018: Sensitivity to recent large variability".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.19(2019).