气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7
	Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves
	Cowan T.; Undorf S.; Hegerl G.C.; Harrington L.J.; Otto F.E.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	505
结束页码	510
卷号	10 期号:6
英文摘要	Substantial warming occurred across North America, Europe and the Arctic over the early twentieth century1, including an increase in global drought2, that was partially forced by rising greenhouse gases (GHGs)3. The period included the 1930s Dust Bowl drought4–7 across North America’s Great Plains that caused widespread crop failures4,8, large dust storms9 and considerable out-migration10. This coincided with the central United States experiencing its hottest summers of the twentieth century11,12 in 1934 and 1936, with over 40 heatwave days and maximum temperatures surpassing 44 °C at some locations13,14. Here we use a large-ensemble regional modelling framework to show that GHG increases caused slightly enhanced heatwave activity over the eastern United States during 1934 and 1936. Instead of asking how a present-day heatwave would behave in a world without climate warming, we ask how these 1930s heatwaves would behave with present-day GHGs. Heatwave activity in similarly rare events would be much larger under today’s atmospheric GHG forcing and the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years. A key driver of the increasing heatwave activity and intensity is reduced evaporative cooling and increased sensible heating during dry springs and summers. © 2020, Crown.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cooling; drought; dust; dust storm; greenhouse gas; heat wave; return period; twentieth century; Great Plains
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142224
作者单位	Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of GeoSciences, The Kings Building, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cowan T.,Undorf S.,Hegerl G.C.,et al. Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves[J],2020,10(6).
APA	Cowan T.,Undorf S.,Hegerl G.C.,Harrington L.J.,&Otto F.E.L..(2020).Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves.Nature Climate Change,10(6).
MLA	Cowan T.,et al."Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves".Nature Climate Change 10.6(2020).