气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0849-2
	Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss
	Vargo L.J.; Anderson B.M.; Dadić R.; Horgan H.J.; Mackintosh A.N.; King A.D.; Lorrey A.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	856
结束页码	861
卷号	10 期号:9
英文摘要	Glaciers are unique indicators of climate change. While recent global-scale glacier decline has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing, direct links between human-induced climate warming and extreme glacier mass-loss years have not been documented. Here we apply event attribution methods to document this at the regional scale, targeting the highest mass-loss years (2011 and 2018) across New Zealand’s Southern Alps. Glacier mass balance is simulated using temperature and precipitation from multiple climate model ensembles. We estimate extreme mass loss was at least six times (2011) and ten times (2018) (>90% confidence) more likely to occur with anthropogenic forcing than without. This increased likelihood is driven by present-day temperatures ~1.0 °C above the pre-industrial average, confirming a connection between anthropogenic emissions and high annual ice loss. These results suggest that as warming and extreme heat events continue and intensify, there will be an increasingly visible human fingerprint on extreme glacier mass-loss years in the coming decades. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; anthropogenic source; climate modeling; extreme event; glacier mass balance; mass balance; warming; New Zealand; South Island; Southern Alps
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142138
作者单位	Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vargo L.J.,Anderson B.M.,Dadić R.,et al. Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss[J],2020,10(9).
APA	Vargo L.J..,Anderson B.M..,Dadić R..,Horgan H.J..,Mackintosh A.N..,...&Lorrey A.M..(2020).Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss.Nature Climate Change,10(9).
MLA	Vargo L.J.,et al."Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss".Nature Climate Change 10.9(2020).