气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102037
	Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai
	Du S.; Scussolini P.; Ward P.J.; Zhang M.; Wen J.; Wang L.; Koks E.; Diaz-Loaiza A.; Gao J.; Ke Q.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	61
英文摘要	Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate change; Coastal flood; Cost-benefit analysis; Nonstationarity; Risk management
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; coastal protection; coastal wetland; cost-benefit analysis; flood damage; Gross Domestic Product; hazard management; sea level pressure; subsidence; China; Shanghai
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142083
作者单位	School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du S.,Scussolini P.,Ward P.J.,et al. Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai[J],2020,61.
APA	Du S..,Scussolini P..,Ward P.J..,Zhang M..,Wen J..,...&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2020).Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai.Global Environmental Change,61.
MLA	Du S.,et al."Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai".Global Environmental Change 61(2020).