气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105157
	Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands
	Suárez-Molina D.; Fernández-González S.; Montero G.; Oliver A.; González J.C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	247
英文摘要	Canary Islands and other regions have been greatly damaged by weather events during the last decades. For this reason, the main duty of National Meteorological Services is to minimize socio-economic losses by forecasting adverse weather episodes with enough time in advance. To achieve this goal, the use of numerical weather prediction models is highly relevant. And, even more crucial, is to comprehend the model accuracy. In this paper, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the Canary Islands has been carried out. The complex terrain of the archipelago makes the islands a test bench of high interest. Four scores were used to assess the accuracy of the model configurations: Bias, mean absolute error (MAE), root of the Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the correlation coefficient (r). Initially, twenty-five WRF model configurations were considered. However, a preliminary test discarded inadequate configurations, and reduced the number to six. The variables of interest were air temperature at 2 m (T2m), maximum 1-h wind gust at 10 m and 3-h rainfall accumulation. The results indicated a systematic wind speed underestimation. This underestimation is related to the influence of the location and the complex orography. The most accurate wind forecasts were obtained using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Planetary Boudary Layer (PBL) scheme with the WSM6 microphysics (MP) scheme. Another major conclusion is that, for precipitation, the PBL scheme has a greater impact than the MP scheme. Finally, the results show that the Boulac – Thompson combination is the most accurate regarding T2m forecast. © 2020
英文关键词	Canary Islands; Complex terrain; Microphysics; PBL; Sensitivity analysis; WRF
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Losses; Mean square error; Predictive analytics; Sensitivity analysis; Wind; Complex terrains; Correlation coefficient; High resolution simulations; Mean absolute error; Mean squared error; Model configuration; Numerical weather prediction models; Weather research and forecasting models; Weather forecasting; complex terrain; computer simulation; image resolution; numerical model; performance assessment; sensitivity analysis; weather forecasting; Canary Islands; Spain
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141980
作者单位	State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Spain; University Institute for Intelligent Systems and Numerical Applications in Engineering (SIANI), University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suárez-Molina D.,Fernández-González S.,Montero G.,et al. Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands[J],2020,247.
APA	Suárez-Molina D.,Fernández-González S.,Montero G.,Oliver A.,&González J.C.S..(2020).Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands.Atmospheric Research,247.
MLA	Suárez-Molina D.,et al."Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands".Atmospheric Research 247(2020).