气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105111
	Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia
	Zhai J.; Mondal S.K.; Fischer T.; Wang Y.; Su B.; Huang J.; Tao H.; Wang G.; Ullah W.; Uddin M.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	246
英文摘要	To characterize future drought events over a drought prone area like South Asia is paramount for drought risk mitigation. In this paper, a five-model ensemble mean from CMIP6 was chosen to project drought characteristics in South Asia under the latest SSPs-RCPs emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) for the period 2020–2099. Additionally, corresponding scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of CMIP5 were used for comparison and to identify the changes and improvements of CMIP6 over the South Asia. Principle Component Analysis and the Varimax rotation method is used to divided the study area into five homogenous drought sub-regions. Drought duration, frequency, and intensity are analyzed based on the Run theory, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-months timescale, and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). The Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope method is adopted to detect sub-regional trends in drought characteristics. Results show that significant increases in drought conditions mainly pronounced over the North-West sub-region. Strong increases are projected in the average drought duration and drought frequency. The North-West sub-region is the most vulnerable to face frequent drought events with longer duration with higher intensity. Parts of the South-West, North-Central, and North-East sub-regions will also face more adverse drought conditions in future. The selected model ensemble from CMIP6 has a very robust capability to simulate present climate parameters (precipitation, temperature, and evaporation) and satisfactorily captures drought characteristics in South Asia. These results provide a basis for developing drought adaptation measures for South Asia. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	CMIP6; Drought; sc-PDSI; South Asia; SPEI; SSPs-RCPs
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Evapotranspiration; Principal component analysis; Climate parameters; Drought characteristics; Drought conditions; Emission scenario; Multi-model ensemble; Principle component analysis; Self-calibrating Palmer drought severity indices; Varimax rotations; Drought; adaptive management; climatology; CMIP; drought; ensemble forecasting; evapotranspiration; principal component analysis; South Asia
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141791
作者单位	National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administrations, Beijing, 100081, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, 72070, Germany; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhai J.,Mondal S.K.,Fischer T.,et al. Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia[J],2020,246.
APA	Zhai J..,Mondal S.K..,Fischer T..,Wang Y..,Su B..,...&Uddin M.J..(2020).Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia.Atmospheric Research,246.
MLA	Zhai J.,et al."Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia".Atmospheric Research 246(2020).