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| DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105228 |
| Evaluation of CORDEX- South Asia regional climate models for heat wave simulations over India | |
| Singh S.; Mall R.K.; Dadich J.; Verma S.; Singh J.V.; Gupta A. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 0169-8095 |
| 卷号 | 248 |
| 英文摘要 | The episodes of heat wave events have strengthened in recent decades causing great concern for human health, agriculture and natural ecosystem. In the present study, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) namely, CCAM and RegCM, from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for South Asia (SA) are evaluated for simulating heat waves (March–June) for a long-term period (1971 to 2005) over India in comparison with observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The statistical analysis (correlation, RMSE, MAE, ECDF) results reveal differences in RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and trends of maximum temperature before bias correction. Variance scaling bias correction is found to remove bias and improve model simulations in capturing temperature variability. An increase in correlation in daily observations from 0.24 to 0.70 and reduction in RMSE from 8.08 °C to 2.02 °C and MAE from 3.87 °C to 2.43 °C after bias correction is observed between model and observation. LMDZ4 and GFDL-ESM2M are found to perform best in simulating interannual variability of seasonal mean maximum temperature with an underestimation of −7.74% and −15.41% which improved significantly to around −1.51% and − 0.78%, respectively after bias correction over India. LMDZ4 and GFDL-ESM2M are also best-performing models in significantly reproducing the heat wave frequency and spatial variability in closer proximity with observations over India amongst all models after bias correction. Over NW and western regions, the LMDZ4 and GFDL-ESM2M ensemble models successfully capture the increasing trend of 0.2 events/year and 0.4 events/year accordance to IMD and IITM criteria, respectively. However, the ACCESS1.0, CNRM-CM5 and CCSM4 ensemble experiments overestimated heat waves by ±40 events in most sub-divisions in India. Over the central Indian regions, the ACCESS 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 model output show a negative trend of −0.2 events/year and large spatial variability possibly due to model associated uncertainties. Overall the results show an improvement in capturing maximum temperature and heat waves across the regions of Indian sub-continent in the bias-corrected downscaled CORDEX-SA ensemble RCMs than without bias-corrected output. The study suggests a way forward to assess RCMs performance and uncertainty in extreme weather analysis in future projections. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. |
| 英文关键词 | Bias correction; CORDEX-SA; Heat wave; India; Regional climate Model |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Agricultural robots; Climatology; Extreme weather; Uncertainty analysis; Future projections; Interannual variability; Maximum temperature; Model and observation; Natural ecosystem; Regional climate models; Spatial variability; Temperature variability; Climate models; climate modeling; computer simulation; frequency analysis; future prospect; heat wave; regional climate; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature anomaly; India |
| 来源期刊 | Atmospheric Research
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141691 |
| 作者单位 | DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India; Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, India |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Singh S.,Mall R.K.,Dadich J.,et al. Evaluation of CORDEX- South Asia regional climate models for heat wave simulations over India[J],2021,248. |
| APA | Singh S.,Mall R.K.,Dadich J.,Verma S.,Singh J.V.,&Gupta A..(2021).Evaluation of CORDEX- South Asia regional climate models for heat wave simulations over India.Atmospheric Research,248. |
| MLA | Singh S.,et al."Evaluation of CORDEX- South Asia regional climate models for heat wave simulations over India".Atmospheric Research 248(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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