气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020
	Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity
	Wild O.; Voulgarakis A.; O'Connor F.; Lamarque J.-F.; Ryan E.M.; Lee L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	4047
结束页码	4058
卷号	20 期号:7
英文摘要	Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry-transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly characterised processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air quality; atmospheric chemistry; chemical composition; climate modeling; hydroxyl radical; ozone; sensitivity analysis; troposphere
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141429
作者单位	Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wild O.,Voulgarakis A.,O'Connor F.,et al. Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity[J],2020,20(7).
APA	Wild O.,Voulgarakis A.,O'Connor F.,Lamarque J.-F.,Ryan E.M.,&Lee L..(2020).Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,20(7).
MLA	Wild O.,et al."Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20.7(2020).