气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020
	Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing
	Johnson J.S.; Regayre L.A.; Yoshioka M.; Pringle K.J.; Turnock S.T.; Browse J.; Sexton D.M.H.; Rostron J.W.; Schutgens N.A.J.; Partridge D.G.; Liu D.; Allan J.D.; Coe H.; DIng A.; Cohen D.D.; Atanacio A.; Vakkari V.; Asmi E.; Carslaw K.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	9491
结束页码	9524
卷号	20 期号:15
英文摘要	The effect of observational constraint on the ranges of uncertain physical and chemical process parameters was explored in a global aerosol-climate model. The study uses 1 million variants of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) that sample 26 sources of uncertainty, together with over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol optical depth, PM2:5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of parameters related to secondary organic aerosol, anthropogenic SO2 emissions, residential emissions, sea spray emissions, dry deposition rates of SO2 and aerosols, new particle formation, cloud droplet pH and the diameter of primary combustion particles. Observational constraint rules out nearly 98% of the model variants. On constraint, the1 (standard deviation) range of global annual mean direct radiative forcing (RFari) is reduced by 33% to ±0:14 to ±0:26Wm±2, and the 95% credible interval (CI) is reduced by 34% to ±0:1 to ±0:32Wm±2. For the global annual mean aerosol-cloud radiative forcing, RFaci, the1 range is reduced by 7% to ±1:66 to ±2:48Wm±2, and the 95% CI by 6% to ±1:28 to ±2:88Wm±2. The tightness of the constraint is limited by parameter cancellation effects (model equifinality) as well as the large and poorly defined "representativeness error" associated with comparing point measurements with a global model. The constraint could also be narrowed if model structural errors that prevent simultaneous agreement with different measurement types in multiple locations and seasons could be improved. For example, con straints using either sulfate or PM2:5 measurements individually result in RFari1 ranges that only just overlap, which shows that emergent constraints based on one measurement type may be overconfident. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141160
作者单位	Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Geography and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom; Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; College for Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences (JirLATEST), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Centre for Accelerator Science, ANSTO, New Illawarra Rd, Lucas Heights, NSW, Australia; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Atmospheric Chemistry Resea...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Johnson J.S.,Regayre L.A.,Yoshioka M.,et al. Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing[J],2020,20(15).
APA	Johnson J.S..,Regayre L.A..,Yoshioka M..,Pringle K.J..,Turnock S.T..,...&Carslaw K.S..(2020).Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,20(15).
MLA	Johnson J.S.,et al."Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20.15(2020).