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| DOI | 10.1126/science.abb5793 |
| Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | |
| Kissler S.M.; Tedijanto C.; Goldstein E.; Grad Y.H.; Lipsitch M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 860 |
| 结束页码 | 868 |
| 卷号 | 368期号:6493 |
| 英文摘要 | It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. |
| 关键词 | data setdisease transmissionimmunityvirusUnited StatesCoronavirusSARS coronavirusBetacoronavirusbiological modelCoronavirus infectiondisease transmissionepidemichumanHuman coronavirus OC43immunologypandemicphysiologyseasonvirologyvirus pneumoniaBetacoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsCoronavirus OC43, HumanDisease OutbreaksDisease Transmission, InfectiousHumansModels, BiologicalPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSeasons |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Science |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133475 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kissler S.M.,Tedijanto C.,Goldstein E.,et al. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period[J]. Science,2020,368(6493). |
| APA | Kissler S.M.,Tedijanto C.,Goldstein E.,Grad Y.H.,&Lipsitch M..(2020).Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.,368(6493). |
| MLA | Kissler S.M.,et al."Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period".368.6493(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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