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| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102070 |
| Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution | |
| Osaka S.; Bellamy R. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0959-3780 |
| 卷号 | 62 |
| 英文摘要 | Scientists can now connect extreme weather events with climate change using a methodology known as “extreme event attribution”, or EEA. The idea of connecting climate change and extreme weather has long been heralded as a panacea for communications, connecting the dangers of climate change to real-world, on-the-ground events. However, event attribution remains a nascent science, and attribution studies of the same event can sometimes produce divergent answers due to precise methodology used, variables examined, and the timescale selected for the event. The 2011–2017 California drought was assessed by 11 EEA studies which came to varying conclusions on its connection to climate change. This article uses the case study of the drought and a multi-methods approach to examine perceptions of EEA among key stakeholders and citizens. Twenty-five key informant interviews were conducted with different stakeholders: scientists performing EEA research, journalists, local and state-level policymakers, and non-governmental organization representatives. In addition, two focus groups with 20 California citizens were convened: one with environmentalists and another with agriculturalists. While climate change was viewed by many as a mild contributing factor to the California drought, many stakeholders had not heard of EEA or doubted that scientists could conclusively link the drought to anthropogenic climate change; those that were familiar with EEA felt that the science was generally uncertain. In the focus groups, presentation of divergent EEA results led participants to revert to pre-existing ideas about the drought-climate connection, or to question whether science had sufficiently advanced to analyze the event properly. These results indicate that while EEA continues to provoke interest and research in the scientific community, it is not currently utilized by many stakeholders, and may entrench the public in pre-existing views. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd |
| 关键词 | climate changedroughtextreme eventmethodologynongovernmental organizationperceptionprecisionresearch workstakeholderweather forecastingCaliforniaUnited States |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Global Environmental Change |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133297 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Osaka S.,Bellamy R.. Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020,62. |
| APA | Osaka S.,&Bellamy R..(2020).Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution.,62. |
| MLA | Osaka S.,et al."Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution".62(2020). |
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