Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2 |
| Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects | |
| Deser C., Lehner F., Rodgers K.B., Ault T., Delworth T.L., | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| 英文摘要 | Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. © 2020, Springer Nature Limited. |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/128143 |
| 作者单位 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deser C., Lehner F., Rodgers K.B., Ault T., Delworth T.L.,. Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects[J],2020. |
| APA | Deser C., Lehner F., Rodgers K.B., Ault T., Delworth T.L.,.(2020).Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects.Nature Climate Change. |
| MLA | Deser C., Lehner F., Rodgers K.B., Ault T., Delworth T.L.,."Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects".Nature Climate Change (2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
