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| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8 |
| Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack | |
| Livneh B., Badger A.M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| 英文摘要 | Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/128128 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Livneh B., Badger A.M.. Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack[J],2020. |
| APA | Livneh B., Badger A.M..(2020).Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack.Nature Climate Change. |
| MLA | Livneh B., Badger A.M.."Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack".Nature Climate Change (2020). |
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