气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-13-969-2019
	Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect
	Li J.-L.F.; Richardson M.; Lee W.-L.; Fetzer E.; Stephens G.; Jiang J.; Hong Y.; Wang Y.-H.; Yu J.-Y.; Liu Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	969
结束页码	980
卷号	13 期号:3
英文摘要	Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an "ice-free" Arctic (monthly mean extent < 1×106 km2 at 550 ppmCO2, compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60-90° N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the CMIP5 ensemble in which inter-model variation in the simulation of other processes likely dominates. Regardless, we show that FIRE can substantially change Arctic sea ice projections and propose that better including falling ice radiative effects in models is a high priority. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	CMIP; general circulation model; global warming; greenhouse effect; ice retreat; ice thickness; numerical model; satellite data; sea ice; simulation; Arctic
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/125170
作者单位	Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-7228, United States; Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32304, United States; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Center for Coastal Marine Sciences, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City, 32001, Taiwan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li J.-L.F.,Richardson M.,Lee W.-L.,et al. Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect[J],2019,13(3).
APA	Li J.-L.F..,Richardson M..,Lee W.-L..,Fetzer E..,Stephens G..,...&Liu Y..(2019).Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect.The Cryosphere,13(3).
MLA	Li J.-L.F.,et al."Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect".The Cryosphere 13.3(2019).