气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111090
	Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios
	Nieto J.; Carpintero Ó.; Miguel L.J.; de Blas I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	137
英文摘要	Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 °C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Climate policy; Energy policy; Green growth; Integrated assessment models; Post-growth
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Economics; Energy policy; Industrial emissions; Sustainable development; Business-as-usual; Climate policy; Green growths; Industrial policies; Integrated assessment models; Low-carbon transitions; Sustainability transition; System dynamics model; Climate models; climate change; economic growth; economic policy; energy policy; environmental policy; Gross Domestic Product; macroeconomics; modeling; sustainability
来源期刊	Energy policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124943
作者单位	Department of Applied Economics, University of Valladolid, Av. Valle Esgueva 6, Spain; Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce, s/n, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Miguel L.J.,et al. Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios[J],2020,137.
APA	Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Miguel L.J.,&de Blas I..(2020).Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios.Energy policy,137.
MLA	Nieto J.,et al."Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios".Energy policy 137(2020).