气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111185
	Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty
	Rios-Festner D.; Blanco G.; Olsina F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	137
英文摘要	In actual energy-only markets, the high volatility of power prices affects the expected returns of generators. When dealing with irreversibility under uncertainty, deferring decisions to commit in new power plants, waiting for better information, is therefore a rational approach. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that such investment pattern determines the occurrence of construction cycles, which strongly compromise supply security. In order to supplement generators' revenues, several remuneration mechanisms have been devised over past years. Along this line, this work addresses the long-run dynamics of capacity adequacy and market efficiency with both a price-based and a quantity-based capacity remuneration policy. For that purpose, a recently-developed, stochastic simulation model is used as a benchmark. Hence, the optimal postponement of generation investment decisions is integrated into a long-run power market model by formulating the decision-making problem in the framework of Real Options Analysis. Results suggest that policymakers may exchange supply security (effectiveness) for energy prices to be paid by consumers (efficiency) when designing and implementing capacity remuneration mechanisms. By doing so, this article contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the design of incentive policies and efficient power markets by considering the microeconomics of investors’ decision-making under irreversibility and uncertainty. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Capacity markets; Capacity payments; Generation investments; Real options; Supply reliability; System dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Commerce; Costs; Decision making; Power markets; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty analysis; Capacity markets; Capacity payments; Generation investment; Real Options; Supply reliability; System Dynamics; Investments; energy market; investment; microeconomics; price dynamics
来源期刊	Energy policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124883
作者单位	Polytechnic Faculty, National University of Asuncion, Paraguay; Institute of Electrical Energy, CONICET - National University of San Juan, Argentina
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rios-Festner D.,Blanco G.,Olsina F.. Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty[J],2020,137.
APA	Rios-Festner D.,Blanco G.,&Olsina F..(2020).Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty.Energy policy,137.
MLA	Rios-Festner D.,et al."Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty".Energy policy 137(2020).