气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in China in terms of uncertain demand, economy, environment, and energy security

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111360
	Intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in China in terms of uncertain demand, economy, environment, and energy security
	Yang Q.; Zhang L.; Zou S.; Zhang J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	139
英文摘要	As coal is the main energy source in China, coal overcapacity and undercapacity have negative impacts on the economy, environment, and energy security. To reveal the optimal production capacity (OPC), an intertemporal optimization model under uncertainty is established by a combined Dynamic Programming - Influence Factor - Scenario Analysis - Monte Carlo method (DP–IF–SA-MC). The OPCs in 1990–2025 are solved to minimize the expected cost to the economy and environment driven by the production capacity (PC) under energy security. In addition, we define, and calculate the PC deviation (PCD), or the deviation of the actual PC (APC) from the OPC. The results show that compared with the APC, the OPC has advantages of more stable development, more timely adjustment, and lower cost, and it provides cost savings of 302.857 billion yuan in 1990–2017. According to PCD, China's coal industry existed under the risk of overcapacity in 1990–1999 and 2009–2017 and undercapacity in 2000–2008, and it can experience overcapacity for most of the time without capacity reduction policies. In future, the optimal management of the PC should be based on the OPC and PCD over the next 5–10 years rather than the current capacity utilization rate, and focus on overcapacity management in the long run. © 2020
英文关键词	Coal; Demand uncertainty; Deviation degree; Intertemporal optimization; Production capacity
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124775
作者单位	School of Management, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, 710054, China; School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China; School of Economics and Management, Yan'an University, Yan'an, 716000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang Q.,Zhang L.,Zou S.,et al. Intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in China in terms of uncertain demand, economy, environment, and energy security[J],2020,139.
APA	Yang Q.,Zhang L.,Zou S.,&Zhang J..(2020).Intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in China in terms of uncertain demand, economy, environment, and energy security.Energy policy,139.
MLA	Yang Q.,et al."Intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in China in terms of uncertain demand, economy, environment, and energy security".Energy policy 139(2020).