气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3
	Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation
	Chiodo G.; Oehrlein J.; Polvani L.M.; Fyfe J.C.; Smith A.K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry–climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric circulation; irradiance; North Atlantic Oscillation; Northern Hemisphere; prediction; solar cycle; Atlantic Ocean; Eurasia; North Atlantic Current
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124719
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathamatics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chiodo G.,Oehrlein J.,Polvani L.M.,et al. Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation[J],2019,12(2).
APA	Chiodo G.,Oehrlein J.,Polvani L.M.,Fyfe J.C.,&Smith A.K..(2019).Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation.Nature Geoscience,12(2).
MLA	Chiodo G.,et al."Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation".Nature Geoscience 12.2(2019).